2024 NBA Draft: Way-too-soon re-draft

Redrafts are always a fun exercise. Normally, you start seeing them one, five, and maybe ten years after the draft took place. Hindsight is always 20/20 and it is rather easy to see where teams made a big mistake or where some were rewarded with the steal of the draft given enough time. But what about doing a redraft of the 2024 NBA Draft now that the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, NV just concluded? Surely, that is far too early.

Hear me out. With no clear franchise cornerstone at the top of the 2024 NBA Draft, teams may have been looking around slightly more in Vegas to get a glimpse as to what could have been. Using that lens – the top of the draft – let us look at the top-three picks from this past June and see if teams may already be questioning their decision. Adding an extra layer of analysis, let us be mindful of those teams’ current roster and salary/contract situations, something that redrafts almost never factor in.

1- F Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks:

Two days after the draft, Atlanta sent guard Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans for two first-round picks – 2025 Los Angeles Lakers and the least favorable pick between the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans’ pick – along with forwards Larry Nance Jr. and E.J. Liddell, and guard Dyson Daniels.

While the Risacher pick was largely based on his upside, shipping Murray to New Orleans has left the Hawks with few quality guards. Additionally, center Clint Capella is playing out the final year of his contract and is the only true playable big on the roster. Instead, he enters a crowded locker room of versatile forwards with De’Andre Hunter (under contract through 2026-2027), Jalen Johnson (rookie contract ending after this upcoming season), Onyeka Okungwu (signed four-year extension last fall), and the recently acquired Nance Jr. (expiring deal after this upcoming season).

Perhaps this signals Johnson’s eventual exit, a risk considering his statistical improvements despite often missing games throughout his career due to injury. But in those terms, it seems like adding Risacher came from a position of luxury. Given their obvious holes at other positions, would Atlanta make a different choice besides him at number one if the draft was today?

Yes, if the reports that the Hawks viewed former Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard as the Patrick Mahomes of the draft. Mahomes goes first overall in 2017 if NFL teams knew what they do today. It is that simple. Atlanta felt they were getting a franchise player with more size. Risacher’s versatility and spot-up shooting at 6’9” certainly makes him an intriguing prospect. In two contests in Vegas, he also showcased his ability to put the ball on the floor, make shots in the lane, get to and finish at the rim, and playmaking off the bounce – particularly one-handed passes.

At 14.5 points on 39 percent from the field and 25 percent on three-pointers, Risacher was not overly efficient. He took a fair number of off-the-dribble pull ups that were largely contested. Risacher shot just 30.1 percent on such attempts last year for JL Bourg in the LBN Pro A league. But honestly, Summer League is the perfect time to take those types of attempts in hopes of developing that skill. The Hawks are clearly rebuilding with no pressure to win this upcoming season. Still, despite his size, spot-up shooting, and likely immediate defensive impact on the perimeter, his growth as a playmaker and shot creator are far enough away that the first overall pick tag may seem pricey for some time. Playing in the starting lineup and alongside Trae Young will take some pressure off, however, as open looks should be plentiful with shot creation duties falling to Young and then to Johnson.

2- C Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards:

If Risacher did enough to ward off any real concern, Sarr mostly did the opposite. Two semi-strong games were followed by two horrifically bad ones, at least in terms of shooting the ball. He registered 0 points while going 0-15 from the floor in a rematch against the Portland Trailblazers and then scored just 2 points on 1-6 from the field in his fourth and final contest.

Sarr did contribute on the defensive end, blocking at least one shot in all four of his games. He also averaged just under eight rebounds per contest. With Washington ranking 28th in defensive rating last year, Sarr’s contributions on that end of the floor will be meaningful. Although, I would hesitate to suggest that a defense can be built around him.

The poor shooting performances are likely making Wizard’s fans a little nervous. Putting the ball in the basket is just a matter of time, but Sarr will not be doing it as often or as efficiently as he could if he continues to be so averse to contact. The signing of Jonas Valanciunas will allow him to roam the perimeter more and figure out the sweet spot between attacking and his face-up game.

Washington is another team with no pressure to win now and one of the lower payrolls in the league. Building around Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole has a way of resetting expectations. A team in this position does not bring the number two pick of the draft off the bench, so Sarr should have plenty of opportunity.

Unlike Atlanta, the Wizards likely do not regret their decision here. But a part of that is because of how their other lottery pick, guard Bub Carrington, looked in Vegas.

3- G Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets:

Pairing the Mahomes of this draft in the same backcourt with Jalen Green seems like a slam dunk. Sheppard further supported that narrative by being named to the NBA Summer League First-Team, averaging 20 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.8 rebounds in four contests. Houston is facing the potential of two max rookie scale extensions. My guess is both take place next summer.

Center Alperen Sengun is trending towards a max extension, but his $16.3 million dollar cap hold next offseason better serves the Rockets given Dillon Brooks’ contract and the possibility of nearly $45 million dollars coming off the books should Fred VanVleet’s team option not be picked up.

Green and Houston are likely both fine waiting out the upcoming season before signing a deal. The former would like five years at over $220 million by further proving his value, while the latter will happily let Green increase his value as it gives them the option to use him in a trade for a proven superstar. That all makes Sheppard both a great fit but also an insurance policy on a rookie deal.

On the court, his feel for the game and knack for making the right decision, even if it is the most obvious one, a commodity that is often overlooked in today’s game. While Sheppard’s outlier shooting percentages are likely to regress to varying levels of good to great, he did show signs of mid-range off the dribble shooting in Vegas. He has a strong sense for how his shooting gravity works in conjunction with his handle, pulling defenders on closeouts and in ball screens. Playmaking is a natural extension from that, and it is certainly within Sheppard’s range.

I do not see a world where the Rockets regret taking him with the third pick. Sheppard’s presence widens gaps for the likes of Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson and will benefit from open kickout triples from Sengun in the post – a metric Houston ranked 7th in last year. I think every team here would tell you they are fine with their draft picks. After all, it has been less than a month. But if the draft were today, I think it would play out as:

1. Atlanta Hawks – Reed Sheppard
2. Washington Wizards – Alex Sarr
3. Houston Rockets – Stephon Castle