The MLB Draft conundrum of choosing between high school and college prospects

All draft picks in sports are risky, but drafting high school players in baseball may be the highest of risks for teams in any sport. This is certainly not a knock against a high school player but just think about all the obstacles he must overcome just to advance in the organization—on the field and off.  

First, a high school prospect is between seventeen and eighteen years old and is, in almost all cases, the best player on his team. His teammates, coaches and communities are excited for him and often revere his play, in most cases creating an atmosphere around him where he’s been held in high regard. He is a known commodity in his community and often discussed as being “a future Major Leaguer.” His family, friends and fellow students come to the games to cheer him on.

As a pitcher, he dominates, striking out 15 batters a game, already has a 94-plus m.p.h. fastball and a great curveball. Or he is a big-time hitter. No one can get a pitch past him. He is crushing everything a country mile. It’s a great life to be a high school star athlete.

But now it is time for him to leave home, often traveling and living in another state, one that he didn't choose and will likely know few people save for his teammates when he arrives. 

On the field, he faces stiffer competition for the first time and goes from being a star to just “another guy.” His best pitch is drilled for a double. Now he is only striking out only four or five players a game. How does he handle it? How is his confidence level? He is doing his best but it’s not working the same as it used to. 

Or the hitter who was batting .500 in high school is now hitting .241. The fastball is faster. The curve balls curve more and are sharper. And top of that, he must use a wooden bat. The ball isn't going as far or coming off the barrel as fast for him. Will the coach be there to help with on the field and or off the field problems? Maybe. 

Then comes traveling. He was used to a fifteen-minute drive to maybe an hour for an away game. Now average travel times are three or four hours to play in front of unfamiliar towns and unfamiliar people. Maybe even some unruly fans. He finds himself sleeping in hotels and when he’s struggling, the bus rides are longer, the hotels not as nice. It's a tough life and a big adjustment for an 18-year-old athlete.

The Life of a College Player is different, however. Most college prospects will be going to a school that he chose in a state he wanted to play in. He lives his days on a nice campus, which turns out to be a step or two above his high school days. He’s got near-professional facilities in which to train and has students, tutors and guidance with every step. 

Is it different from high school? Yes, but not that much. 

Typically, the prospect will play against good but not great competition. If he struggles, the coach will spend extra time with him after practice. Things can be worked through. There is time.

Looking at it through the eyes of a scout and coach, high school players and their stats could be misleading. For example, I was once asked to look at a pitcher who was dominating. He averaged seventeen strikeouts a game, with an ERA of 0.72. 

So, I went to scout. 

He was a good pitcher—confident and kind of cocky, which is acceptable. But let's break it down again. When I heard all the acclaim for this young man, I thought he's either the next Sandy Koufax or the teams he is going against are just not that good. 

After watching the game, unfortunately it was the latter. Out of the nine batters in the lineup he was facing, perhaps two were legitimate hitters. It didn’t take a leap of faith to ask myself how he would react when he faces a better lineup.

So, I traveled to see him in a playoff game. The opposing team had five good hitters in the lineup and were not intimidated by him at all. When his best pitches (a fastball and slider) were hit, the pitcher was obviously upset and as the game progressed, his shoulders drooped.

In the end, this prospect was a projected draft pick and turned it down to go to college, which for him was ultimately the right move. There he had a nice college career, matured and was drafted and signed to a Major League team. He is still climbing... and still maturing. That is just as important as it is to improve his physical game. 

In the end, all draft picks are risks. Teams must mitigate that risk, and by choosing a college player who has been through the ups and downs, faced better competition, been away from home a little longer and has been exposed to life a little more, college prospects are a bit easier to predict. And if I were making those decisions, college players would always have an edge on my draft board.