2024 Emirates Cup, Semi-Finals

Not afraid or backing down from holding an L after going 2-2 predicting the quarterfinals of the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup. For those still not familiar, the schedule and bracket can be found here. In my defense, two key injuries swung the two games that I pegged as being the premiere and most competitive matchups.

P.J. Washington dropped 27 points and grabbed 17 rebounds when the Dallas Mavericks beat the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road back in mid-November. Washington did not play on Tuesday.

Some may point to a controversial call that put Jalen Green on the free throw line with a chance to take the lead with 3.5 seconds left as the reason the Houston Rockets emerged victorious on Wednesday night. However, I think Andrew Wiggins missing the game was a bigger deal as I do not believe it would have been as close down the stretch had he suited up.

Still, with Dallas going out early, I lost my original pick to win the tournament. Although, I am 2-0 predicting the Eastern Conference games.

Tonight’s Slate:

Milwaukee Bucks (#1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (#3):

I am flipping the script here after watching both of their games earlier this week, as I feel differently about these two teams and what their trajectory is in the immediate future. Milwaukee has won 11 of their last 14 games, but one of those losses is to Atlanta. That game was also on their home floor.

Based on what happened a little over a week ago, I think the Hawks are going to again let Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard get theirs while limiting everyone else. Yes, the Bucks now have Khris Middleton back in the fold, but he still needs time to ramp up to a regular workload. Middleton did take some playmaking responsibilities off Giannis and Dame’s shoulders, but did not score a single point on Tuesday. Bobby Portis dropped 22 and 10 but is unlikely to have that same kind of success against the Hawks’ frontcourt; he was limited to just six boards and five rebounds last week.

Atlanta on the other hand has athletic forwards and bodies that they can throw at Giannis, Portis, and Brook Lopez. Onyeka Okongwu has a chance to at least play Portis to a draw coming off the bench. Also, Clint Capela is likely to have another good night cleaning the glass as he had 17 rebounds a week ago. De’Andre Hunter is a long defensive-minded athlete that can pester Dame on the perimeter coming off the bench. Bogdan Bogdanovic is also a solid rotation piece that can provide some scoring as well.

I expect Trae Young to bounce back as he did not have a great outing last week despite Milwaukee having trouble defending on the perimeter. If Young can score somewhere in the 20’s on a relatively efficient night, the Hawks will probably be able to outscore the Bucks.

But the key to me is Jalen Johnson who is playing at a level worthy of all-star consideration. Originally skeptical of the 5-year, $150 million dollar extension Johnson signed in October, he has proven his worth through 24 games this season. He dropped 23 points, pulled down 13 rebounds, and dished out five assists last week at Milwaukee in 40 minutes. If Johnson can find his outside stroke again – shooting just 20% on three-pointers this month – he becomes an even greater threat.

Hawks over Bucks

Oklahoma City Thunder (#1) vs. Houston Rockets (#2):

I feel a lot better about this one as I originally had the Golden State Warriors here. That is not to say that Houston is just happy to be in the semifinals, but I felt whoever won between Dallas and Oklahoma City was going to win it all. That said, I do think this will be a great battle as both teams represent the very best in terms of defensive rating – the Thunder are first and the Rockets are second.

The difference is that Oklahoma City is a much better offensive team with a more defined identify. Houston has a few more questions they are going to need to answer. Will Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green bounce back from poor shooting nights? How effective is Alperen Sengun going to be against the Thunder’s frontcourt?

Oklahoma City comfortably beat the Rockets at home in early November. Granted, Chet Holmgren was a big reason as to why as he tied Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with a game-high 29 points. Holmgren helped limit Sengun to 11 points on a very inefficient 3-12 from the field. Obviously, he will not be available for this one. However, Isaiah Hartenstein is now healthy and has been filling that void exactly as the Thunder had hoped when they signed him over the summer. Hartenstein has been a double-double machine and will likely limit how much damage Houston can do inside.

The Rockets have a choice here. They can allow SGA and Jalen Williams to score while trying to take away the role players. That would make sense as it was the rotation pieces that really hurt them in their prior meeting. Of course, that is easier said than done.

For the Thunder, they are likely to play the Rockets straight up with their quality perimeter defenders to annoy the likes of VanVleet and Green while limiting the number of catch-and-shoot triples across the board. Oklahoma City is third in the league in beyond the arc field goal percentage defense at 33.6%. I do not expect a blowout here and it should remain somewhat close throughout. In that scenario, SGA is the best player and will be the best closer on the floor and that will be the separator late in the fourth quarter.

Thunder over Rockets

Championship:

Thunder over Hawks