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It’s finally here. One of the best traditions in sports—the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. The next few weekends are rightfully one of the most celebrated postseasons of any year. The single-elimination format creates tension and drama with every possession, and the range of emotions couldn’t be higher.
But perhaps the greatest thing about the tournament is that hope springs eternal, and each team believes that they have a shot at winning the championship. From the favorites to the underdogs in the lower seeds, each team has the same path ahead of them. Six games and six wins means you claim the national title.
Last year may have been one of the most unpredictable tournaments ever, as no seed above a four made it to the Final Four. There are teams that are expected to make deep runs and lower seeded teams that may go on a "Cinderella" run, all the way to Final 4 in Phoenix.
#1 Houston Cougars (30-4, 15-3) Big 12
After being a dominant force in the American Athletic conference for the past few years, the Cougars made the switch to the ultra-competitive Big 12 this season. However, they suffered no falloff from the rise in competition, as they dominated Kansas, Iowa State and many other Big 12 foes throughout the regular season. They bring in an experienced veteran lineup that runs extraordinarily deep, with over 10 players averaging ten or more minutes a night. Despite running a smaller lineup in terms of height, Houston is a dominant defensive team. They hold the nation’s top adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Scoring should also not be an issue, with Baylor transfer guard L.J. Cryer and Jamal Shead leading the way. The path is simple for the Cougars—play stifling defense and lean on their experience.
#1 UConn Huskies (31-3, 18-2) Big East
The 2023 National Champions are primed for another run in 2024, despite this being a very different team than the year prior. While some of the big names returned, such as Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan, this Huskies squad has acquired tremendous guard talent from a variety of sources. True freshman Stephon Castle started and played well, Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer has been phenomenal, but maybe the most important player to this team’s success has been point guard Tristen Newton. Newton became one of the nation’s top players after a down year last year. Coach Dan Hurley has this team playing at its best right now. This team is an offensive juggernaut and it would be a surprise to see this team at least not crack the Final 4. No team has won back-to-back National Titles since Florida in 2006 and 2007, but this Huskies squad could very well be the next.
#1 Purdue Boilermakers (29-4, 17-3) Big Ten
Purdue’s struggles in March in recent years have been well-documented. While the historic loss to 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson is still fresh in everybody’s mind, Coach Matt Painter’s team has lost to double digit seeds the past 3 NCAA tournaments. Despite this, the Boilermakers look to launch their redemption tour after yet another dominant showing this year. They are an astonishing 8-0 against Top 25 opponents this season, including wins over Arizona, Tennessee, Marquette, and Alabama. Likely two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey is still the focal point of Purdue’s offense, as the big man racked up another incredible season. However, if Purdue is going to exercise their March demons, it will likely come down to the supporting cast around Edey. Guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer struggled late as true freshmen last season, but have stayed steady and shown great improvement this year. Lance Jones, a transfer from SIU, has brought quickness and defensive prowess, while the returning cast of Mason Gillis, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Ethan Morton all found ways to contribute this season. This Boilermaker team wants to emulate Virginia, who claimed a National Title after losing the prior season to 16-seeded UMBC, and if their offense can work in tandem both inside and outside, they have a good chance of doing so.
#2 Tennessee Volunteers (24-8, 14-4) SEC
The physical Volunteers under Coach Rick Barnes have always seemed primed for a run late into March, but have occasionally lacked the scoring touch to truly accomplish it. However, thanks to an unlikely hero, this Volunteers squad might be the most formidable version of this team so far. Defensively, the Vols come as advertised. They rank 3rd in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and have limited the opposing team’s FG% to 38.9% this season. Veterans like Santiago Vescovi, Jahmai Mashack and Josiah Jordan-James lead this end of the equation for Tennessee, and each are a force defensively. However, the truly special part of this season has been the revelation that Dalton Knecht has been. A 5th year senior who began at the JUCO level, Knecht was brought in as a grad transfer from Northern Colorado, after a middling 2022, but had an impressive 2023 season. However, nobody expected Knecht to then run away with SEC Player of the Year, with an astounding 21.1 points per game, while shooting over 40% from 3. Knecht has dropped 30+ points 7 times so far this season, and is one the most dangerous and consistent shooters in the game right now. If he can stay hot while the rest of the team does enough to support him, the Volunteers might have a date in Phoenix in the Final 4.
#2 Arizona Wildcats (25-8, 15-5) Pac-12
Much like Purdue, the Arizona Wildcats are on their own redemption tour after being knocked out of last year’s tournament as a two-seed by Princeton. While this year’s team brings back many of the same players, they added former UNC Tar Heel Caleb Love to their already good roster, and he has delivered to this point of the season. He leads the Wildcats in scoring with 18.1 points per game, and helped Arizona score 87.9 points per game as a team, good for 3rd in the country. Still, a few bad late season losses against the likes of Oregon State, USC and then Oregon in the PAC-12 tournament have put a bit of a damper on what was a strong season. Can they put it back together to make a deep run, or will the wheels come off early again?
#3 Baylor Bears (23-10, 11-7) Big 12
The Bears are a bit of a hard team to nail down. On paper their roster looks great, especially given the play of two future NBA players in Ja’Kobe Walter and Yves Missi. Walter is a dangerous shooter from anywhere on the court while Missi dominates down low with his physicality. There’s also plenty of support here too, as four other players average 10+ points per game as well. However, defensively this team has major struggles. They rank 64th on KenPom in defensive efficiency, and are 156th in the country in opposing points per game with 71.2. The question is this more a side effect of playing in the ultra-competitive Big 12 this season, or is this a weakness that could be exploited?
#1 North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7, 17-3) ACC
Despite the relative weakness of the ACC this season, the Tar Heels still managed to find themselves on the one seed line this March. After disappointing last year, UNC managed to keep a good chunk of their core players around, while adding some important contributors through the transfer portal. Star big man Armando Bacot returned for his 5th season, and while the numbers aren’t as gaudy as previous seasons, he’s still one of the engines that makes this team go. Outside of him though, senior point guard RJ Davis has stepped up in a big way, leading the Tar Heels in scoring at 21.4 points per game, while shooting over 40% from 3. Add in the contributions from transfers Harrison Ingram (12.1 PPG) and Cormac Ryan (11.2 PPG), and North Carolina could very well make a run to the Final 4.
#2 Marquette Golden Eagles (25-9, 14-6) Big East
Marquette returns to the NCAA Tournament with essentially the same roster that got them a #2 seed last year, but they obviously hope to get further than the second round after getting knocked out early by Michigan State. The Golden Eagles’ resume is impressive, as they’ve notched wins over Illinois, Kansas, Texas and Creighton. While Kam Jones is the leading scorer at 16.8 PPG, Marquette also returns point guard Tyler Kolek and C/PF Oso Ighodaro. The trio average 45.8 PPG and most teams have to choose their focus defensively on one of the three, as all of them can take over games at a moment’s notice. One big question mark, though, is the health of Kolek. After sitting out the end of the regular season and entire Big East tournament with an oblique injury, Kolek is projected to return to the lineup. However, if he isn’t at 100% that could put a major damper on the usually high-flying Golden Eagles.
#2 Iowa State Cyclones (27-7, 13-5) Big 12
When head coach TJ Otzelberger took over the Cyclones in 2021, Iowa State had only won two games in the season prior. Just three seasons later, he's led them to a Big 12 Tournament title and has a great chance at making a deep run into March. Much like their conference rivals in Houston, the Cyclones rely on one of the nation’s strongest defenses to suck the life out of their opponents. They force a lot of turnovers and are able to shut down most teams who struggle to hit contested shots. Offensively, the Cyclones score by committee, but have a burgeoning superstar in point guard Tamin Lipsey. The true sophomore is a dynamic playmaker who can distribute the ball extraordinarily well. While he might not be the major scoring presence that a lot of teams have, Lipsey helps make up for it by spreading the ball around to the rest of the team to pick up the slack.
#4 Duke Blue Devils (24-8, 15-5) ACC
Whether you love them or hate them, the Duke Blue Devils have historically always been a threat for a deep run into March. However, head coach John Scheyer still has a lot to prove when it comes to March success, as Duke was bounced out in the second round by Tennessee in last year’s tournament. There’s no question this year’s team is stronger on paper, but there have been some bumps in the road. They only have two wins against ranked opponents this season (Michigan State and Baylor), and have struggled against top tier opponents, including two losses to North Carolina, and an early season loss at home against Arizona. Injuries played a role in some ugly early season losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, as Mark Mitchell, Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach have all missed a few games this season. Still, the talent is undeniable for the Blue Devils. Center Kyle Filipowski had another solid year on the inside while the rest of the team is shooting an impressive 37.7% from three this season. Freshman Jared McCain is this team’s x-factor though, as the young guard has become an instant contributor before likely heading to the NBA next year, as could Filipowski. There’s a lot on the line for Duke this March, and they could very well vie for a championship if they stay consistent.
#3 Kentucky Wildcats (23-9, 13-5) SEC
While it feels like the Wildcats have gone somewhat under the radar this year, they have gotten hot at the right time. They run one of the most interesting rotations in the country, as 2 of 3 of their top scorers come off the bench most nights. True freshmen Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppherd are expected to be one and done talents headed to the NBA next season, but are dynamic scoring threats who have really started to heat up down the stretch. Head coach John Calipari also has other freshmen contributors like DJ Wagner, Justin Edwards and Zvonimir Ivisic also getting good minutes. But despite the youth movement, the underlying star is Antonio Reeves, a 5th year senior who began his career at Illinois State. Reeves is averaging 20 PPG while shooting 44% from beyond the arc this season, and helps give the Wildcats a veteran leader on the court for them to turn to. Can they overcome their lack of experience to make a deep run into March?
Don’t Let Them Get Hot
#3 Creighton Blue Jays (23-9, 14-6) Big East
Despite a few bad losses this season, the Creighton Blue Jays should still be a team to watch out for potentially making a deep run. They are a high volume team when it comes to shooting from 3, averaging over 29 attempts a night from beyond the arc. Leading the charge on this front is 5th year senior Baylor Scheierman. While he can go cold at times, the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit leads the Blue Jays at 18.4 points per game. He’s supplanted by fellow 5th year senior Ryan Kalkbrenner, their dynamic 7 '0 center who is also averaging over 17 PPG. But maybe the most important change for Creighton this season has been the consistent growth of Trey Alexander. The junior had a good season last year, but has reached a new level to this point. While his 3-point accuracy has gone down, he’s become a much more balanced scorer as he is much more comfortable driving the basket than before. Now Creighton has three very effective players who can score from different areas on the court, making them a matchup nightmare defensively.
#4 Alabama Crimson Tide (21-11, 13-5) SEC
The Crimson Tide are the biggest “glass cannon” type of team in the tournament. On the positive end, they are one of the most potent offensive squads of the field, scoring a league-high 90.8 PPG as a team. They take a lot of quick shots, especially from the outside, which plays well for their star player Mark Sears. The point guard is averaging 21.1 PPG while shooting over 50% from the field, and over 43% from 3. The issue for Alabama? A horrific defense that has given up 81.1 PPG that means every game has to become a track meet. If they can continue to outpace their opponent as they have most times this season, they could go far into the tournament. But all it takes is one off shooting night, and the Crimson Tide could be an early exit.
#3 Illinois Fighting Illini (26-8, 14-6) Big Ten
While conference rival Purdue catches most of the flak for “choking” in March, the Illini have had their own struggles of late when it comes to the tournament. They haven’t made the second weekend of the Big Dance since their championship-winning season in 2005. Now however, feels like it might be time for Illinois to break that streak and go far, especially after capturing a hard-fought Big Ten tournament title. If they do, the reason for that success will be star guard Terrence Shannon Jr. After returning from an early season suspension, Shannon exploded for the Illini, to the tune of 23 PPG. He’s a dynamic and explosive playmaker who is playing his best basketball after a dominant Big Ten tournament. But also keep an eye out for Marcus Domask, a 5th year transfer from Southern Illinois. He’s added another versatile scoring threat to an already solid Illinois lineup, and could be a reason this team has a better chance at a deep run than in the past.
#4 Kansas Jayhawks (22-10, 10-8) Big 12
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Jayhawks. After landing center Hunter Dickinson in the transfer portal, Kansas was projected to be a top 10 seed all year as they boasted one of the top lineups in the league. Alongside Dickinson was former Texas Tech guard Kevin McCullar entering his 5th collegiate season, as well as two juniors; point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. and forward KJ Adams. As they got onto a hot start during non-conference play, true freshman shooting guard Johnny Furphy also became an instant contributor, giving the Jayhawks a true outside shooting threat. The results were instantaneous. Outside of a loss to #4 Marquette at the time in Maui, Kansas was 13-1 entering Big 12 play, which included wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, UConn and Indiana. However, then the wheels fell off. While they still managed to get some big victories at home against Houston and Baylor, Kansas finished an underwhelming 10-8 in conference play, before getting embarrassed by Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament. The main reasons for the collapse? Firstly, Kansas could not win on the road. They went an appalling 2-7 in their road conference games. While road losses to Houston (which was a huge blowout) and Baylor are understandable to a degree, losses to UCF, West Virginia, and Kansas State are much less so. The other thing that affected the Jayhawks, especially down the stretch, was injuries specifically to their 2 transfer stars. Kevin McCullar has been dealing with a nagging issue for most of the season, and has been forced to miss the past 5 games, while Hunter Dickinson suffered a dislocated shoulder during their blowout loss to Houston, and ultimately missed their game against Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament. With both of their statuses up in the air for the NCAA Tournament, one has to wonder which Jayhawk team will show up in March. Will they be the dominant team of the non-conference schedule as they return to neutral courts? Or has this stretch of Big 12 play shown deep flaws within this roster?
#4 Auburn Tigers (27-7, 13-5) SEC
Don’t let the #4 seed fool you, this Auburn Tigers team is one of the strongest teams in the tournament. Outside of an early season loss to Appalachian State (who turned in a fantastic season themselves), the Tigers have few bad losses and are coming off of winning the SEC Tournament title. While their roster lacks the overall star power of some teams, they are one of the best groups in the country when it comes to distributing the ball around. Despite averaging 18 assists per game, no player on the team averages more than 4 per game. The majority of those passes go to power forward Johni Broome. The former Morehead State transfer is a powerful, physical option in the low post, and is averaging over 16 PPG. He and fellow forward Jaylin Williams (averaging 12.4 PPG on his own) draw a ton of defensive pressure on them, allowing other players to step up when needed. Their size will be a problem for a lot of teams they come up against, so don’t be surprised if they go far into the bracket.
#5 Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-7, 14-2) WCC
Based on the past few years, Gonzaga ending up with a #5 seed feels like a bit of a let down, and for good reason. While this team is still plenty talented and can keep up with any team in the country, they have lacked the top tier non-conference wins like they have had in years past. Outside of an impressive late season win at Kentucky and going 1 for 3 against rival Saint Mary’s this season, the Zags won no other games against ranked opponents. This is not for a lack of trying however, as they lost to both Purdue and UConn. While the departure of players like Drew Timme and Julian Strawther hurt tremendously, their replacements have not been bad at all. Wyoming transfer Graham Ike has done a great job at acting as the strong scoring threat down low, while Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard has stepped into the starting point guard role and thrived. The roster has the talent to go far in March, but could easily find themselves out early if they can’t manage to win a big game.
#5 San Diego State Aztecs (27-6, 16-3) Mountain West
Despite there not being much expectation for the Aztecs to repeat their unlikely run to the Championship game from last season, this year’s squad is on a remarkably similar path to potentially do so. While defensively San Diego State is still very strong as they always seem to be under head coach Brian Dutcher, they have made some stark changes offensively. While last year’s Cinderella run was a great example of scoring by committee, with no player averaging more than 13 points per game, a star has emerged for the Aztecs this season; Jaedon Ledee. The former Buckeye and Horned Frog was an important role player last season for SDSU, but has become the focal point of the offense to this point so far. After averaging under 8 PPG last year, Ledee is at 21.1 PPG currently, while shooting an astounding 55.7% from the field. The power forward loves to drive to the hoop, and is not afraid of contact in the slightest. He gets to the line frequently, and is a major headache to defend against without drawing fouls. The rest of the team can struggle from the field however, so if Ledee gets shut down, the rest of the Aztecs might go down with him.
#5 Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7, 15-1) WCC
Much like their rival Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s have become a consistent March Madness participant despite playing in the generally weak WCC. Still, one can’t help but feel the Gaels have a lot to prove when it comes to March, as they haven’t been to a Sweet 16 since 2010. The Gaels play a distinct style of basketball under head coach Randy Bennett, which allows them to play consistently strong as a team despite not having the strongest talent, and this year’s squad is no different. They are a defense-first team that spreads the ball around offensively. Saint Mary’s is the #2 team in the country in opposing points per game, only allowing 58.7 PPG this season, and they mainly do this by defending the 3-point line. Opponents are shooting 31.5% from 3, but are only averaging 5 makes from beyond the arc. Offensively, the Gaels return most of their scoring from last season, including their top 3 scorers Aidan Mahaney, Augustus Marciulionis, and Mitchell Saxen. Teams also need to watch out for 5th year senior Alex Ducas, a 3-point specialist who is shooting a career-high 44.2% from 3.
#6 South Carolina Gamecocks (26-7, 13-5) SEC
Picked to finish dead last in the SEC this season, head coach Lamont Paris led the Gamecocks on an astounding run, as they led the SEC for a large chunk of the season over the likes of Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee. And while their form has been slightly less impressive of late (mainly getting blown out by Auburn twice in a few weeks), their resume is still legit, including wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Florida, etc. So don’t count them out as just a flash in the pan. While not their top scorer, the key player to watch for on this Gamecocks squad is Collin Murray-Boyles. The true freshman forward is a likely NBA Draft pick in a few months, and gives South Carolina an explosive and powerful threat driving the basket on most possessions.
#7 Florida Gators (24-11, 11-7) SEC
Like some other teams on this list, don’t get scared off by the lower seed on the Gators. This is a really good team that can play with anybody in the country. After a poor season last year, the Gators went shopping in the transfer portal and hit big, as all three of their top scorers are transfers from this past season. The most impressive of the bunch has been Iona transfer Walter Clayton, as the 6'2 guard leads the Gators in scoring at 17.1 PPG. He is a streaky shooter that can take over a game when he’s hot, but can go ice cold from time to time. That’s why it’s good that his teammates Zyon Pullin and Tyrese Samuel play more consistently while still averaging 15.6 and 14.0 PPG respectively. However, much like their conference foe Alabama, Florida is another team that is extremely potent offensively while suffering immensely on defense. This may be further worsened by the injury to center Micah Handlogten in the SEC title game. With his out the rest of the season, keep on eye on Samuel to have to rotate to the 5 at times, while true freshman Alex Condon will have to step up into the starting rotation.
#7 Washington State Cougars (24-9, 14-6) Pac-12
With all of the conference drama surrounding Washington State from the beginning of the season, it’s a surprise to see the Cougars make the Big Dance after an impressive season. While the PAC-12 as a whole was much weaker than expected this season, the Cougars still managed to build an impressive resume. While their underlying numbers are a bit underwhelming, their roster boasts a nice mix of youth and experience that have combined to produce an above average defense that has some scoring touch to it. Redshirt freshman Myles Rice performed tremendously in his first year of action, and has formed a great duo with former JUCO transfer Isaac Jones, with the latter averaging 15.4 PPG on 58.2% shooting. This team has shown resilience all season, and head coach Kyle Smith’s guys could prove to be a tough out in March.
#7 Dayton Flyers (24-7, 14-4) A-10
Despite a disappointing end to the season with an early exit in the A-10 tournament to Duquesne, the Flyers are still one of the top mid-major schools in the tournament. The headliner for this Dayton team is DaRon Holmes III, a 3rd year power forward with NBA potential. The athleticism and explosiveness is off the charts, and is a dominant force at both ends of the court. Not only is he averaging 20.4 PPG on 54.5% shooting, but also 2.1 blocks a game. An underrated aspect of this team to watch out for though? They are hitting 40.2% of their 3s this season, largely thanks to Nate Santos and Koby Brea who help take the load off of Holmes offensively. If this team can get rolling, they could make a surprisingly deep run into the bracket.
#8 Florida Atlantic Owls (25-8, 14-4) AAC
While there will be much debate on whether the Owls got too high of a seed, or deserved to be in at all after their late season loss to Temple, the fact of the matter is that FAU is not a team to be taken lightly in March. After their surprising Final 4 run last year, head coach Dusty May returned most of his players from that team, and on paper they look much improved. Memorable names from last year like Johnell Davis and Vlad Goldin have helped the Owls score 82.5 PPG collectively, good for 16th in the country. The issue has been defense for FAU though, which is especially concerning given most of their games came in the decidedly weak American Athletic Conference this season. The Final 4 pedigree is still there for this team, but it also would not come as a surprise for the Owls to exit early this year given the lack of defensive presence.
#5 Wisconsin Badgers (22-13, 11-9) Big Ten
It’s certainly been an interesting season for head coach Greg Gard and the Badgers. They were leading the Big Ten and found themselves ranked all the way up at #6 in the nation at one point, before hitting a crushing 3-8 skid to end the regular season. While they had mostly locked up a tournament spot with their early wins, that stretch put them likely at around a 7 seed after being considered as a 2 for much of the year. However, they turned in an impressive Big Ten tournament with 3 straight wins, including over Purdue before losing to Illinois in the title game. During that run, players like AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn largely returned to their early season forms, which ranked up there as some of the best in the Big Ten. So, which Badgers team will we get in the tournament? The one who faltered against Michigan, Rutgers and Indiana? Or, was the Big Ten tournament a sign that the Badgers are getting hot again and could be good a deep run?
#9 Michigan State Spartans (19-14, 10-10) Big Ten
This Michigan State team is reminiscent of last year’s UNC team. Both were ranked incredibly highly after returning most of their roster from the previous season, and were expected to do big things. However, both ended up being incredibly underwhelming. Unlike the Tar Heels though, the Spartans have the chance to redeem themselves after just doing enough to make the tournament. The main issue for Michigan State this season has been finding any sort of offensive consistency outside of Tyson Walker. While the star guard has been mostly outstanding this season, to the tune of 18.2 PPG, the rest of the team has been incredibly hot and cold. Most notably, they have failed to find any way to get much production at all from their 5 spot. The returning Mady Sissoko has regressed tremendously, and young players Xavier Booker and Carson Cooper have failed to provide much impact either, forcing most of the pressure onto the guards to score. Sparty is good enough defensively this season to hang around in most games, but have failed time and time again to capitalize on most of these chances. Head coach Tom Izzo is known for some March magic most years and there is plenty of talent for this team to potentially draw upon. But to this point, it might be better to doubt the Spartans for once.
#6 BYU Cougars (23-10, 10-8) Big 12
From an outside glance, BYU looks fairly unimpressive as a potential tournament favorite. They have some big wins on their resume, including San Diego State, Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor, but also have some bad losses, such as to Oklahoma State and Cincinnati. Their leading scorer, Jaxson Robinson, is putting up 13.8 PPG and comes off the bench, so most of their scoring comes via committee. They’re 2nd in the country in 3-point attempts per game at 32.2, but are 133rd in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.8%. However, the underlying metrics love the Cougars. They are all the way up at 12th in the NET rankings, which would put them alongside the likes of Creighton and Illinois, both 3 seeds. KenPom’s rankings also like BYU, which has them at 16th nationally. BYU might be this year’s “eye test versus analytics” team to watch. Their seeding suggests the committee didn’t buy the metrics as much, but anything can happen in March.
#6 Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-10, 11-7) Big 12
The Red Raiders had an impressive season in the rough Big 12 Conference, and have a good mix of balanced scoring options while being an above average 3-point shooting group. The star of the show here is 6 '2 guard Pop Isaacs, a volume shooting threat who leads Texas Tech in scoring at 15.9 PPG despite only shooting 35.5% on the year. The Red Raiders run a particularly small lineup to go alongside Isaacs. Outside of starting center Warren Washington, no player over 6’7 plays over 10 minutes a night. So, while they tend to have the speed advantage most nights, they are susceptible to struggling against dominant big men.
#6 Clemson Tigers (21-11, 11-9) ACC
Clemson is an interesting case of when the statistics don’t necessarily match the results on the court. Just looking at the numbers, the Tigers are an efficient team that statistically is best at hitting their 2-point shots from the field, to pair along with a 79% free throw shooting percentage, good for 9th in the country. And that seems to make sense, given how important power forward PJ Hall is to the team. The 6’10 senior leads the Tigers with 18.8 PPG, while shooting just under 50% from the field. With the transfer in of former Syracuse guard Joe Girard, they even have some outside shooting threats to better help Hall find open lanes to score from. However, sometimes they simply don’t play to their strengths. They settle for bad outside shots far too often, and its reflected in some wonky metrics. PJ Hall, for how good of a season he’s having, is attempting nearly five 3-pointers a game while shooting just barely over 30% on them. The same goes for his teammate Chase Hunter, attempting 4.1 a game while only making 1.2 of them. The results of this have shown up on their resume. Outside of a win against UNC and Alabama, the Tigers have no other marquee wins to their name, and a decent amount of questionable losses. A good run into the tournament isn’t out of the question given the talent level of the team, but they need to play to their strengths or else they could find themselves out early.
#7 Texas Longhorns (20-12, 9-9) Big 12
While Texas still has a good chance at making some noise this tournament, a 7-seed has to feel underwhelming given the amount of talent on this roster. They made two splashes in the transfer portal by bringing in former March Madness hero at Oral Roberts, Max Abmas, as well as longtime Virginia Cavalier Kadin Shedrick to add to a talented roster. The results have been surprisingly mediocre however. While Abmas is leading the team at 17.1 PPG, he’s doing so at a fairly inefficient rate, as he’s only shooting 43% from the field. 5th year senior Dylan Disu has been as advertised as an explosive threat from the wing, but the rest of the team has been a bit underwhelming offensively. Two main issues stick out for the Longhorns. Firstly, they can get into foul trouble a bit, as they commit 17.5 fouls per game as a team, which can throw off their rhythm offensively. The other issue might be an even bigger problem though, turnovers. At 11.4 turnovers a game, that has also helped stifle their chances at creating seamless offense.
#8 Utah State Aggies (27-6, 14-4) Mountain West
One of the surprises of the year, the Aggies under new head coach Danny Sprinkle had to completely revamp their roster after returning almost none of the team from the previous season. So it was a bit of a shock that it was the Aggies who went out and won the ultra-competitive Mountain West’s regular season title. The roster reconstruction had many components. There were the outside transfers like Ian Martinez from Maryland and Josh Uduje from Coastal Carolina. There were incoming freshmen, like Mason Falslev, who has become an everyday starter for the Aggies. But maybe the most important was a little bit of familiarity, as a few players followed Coach Sprinkle from Montana State to Utah State. Namely Darius Brown and Great Osobor. Osobor, in particular, has been the prized get for the Aggies, as the 6 '8 forward averaged nearly a double-double this season at 18.0 PPG and 9.2 rebounds per game. This team has gelled together shockingly quick, and could be good for a run into March if they continue playing at a high level.
#10 Nevada Wolfpack (26-7, 13-5) Mountain West
Out of all of the good teams out of the Mountain West this year, it feels like the least has been said about Nevada, which is a bit of shame as this can be a fun team with enough veteran experience that could lend itself to a bit of an unlikely run in the tournament. This team has one goal in mind on most offensive possessions; to drive to the basket. While they are capable of hitting some 3-pointers, they are 303rd in the country in attempted 3s, while shooting collectively an impressive 47.5% from the field as a whole. 5th year senior Jarod Lucas is a fantastic slasher and the star player for the Wolfpack, and is able to score from all three levels. Specifically, he loves to get to the free throw line. The team overall is 10th in the country in free throws attempted, and Lucas is hitting them at a 90% clip. Getting into foul trouble against the Wolfpack can be a death sentence, so opponents need to defend carefully or they could be in line for an upset.
#9 Northwestern Wildcats (21-11, 12-8) Big Ten
The Wildcats are back in the tournament and have the potential to make some noise if given the chance. Northwestern has the stereotypical “feel” or “build” of a good mid-major team that does well in March, but in the body of a Big Ten school. They are a scrappy team that hangs around thanks to a solid enough defense, and does 1 thing exceptionally well; shoot threes. They enter the tournament 5th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.4%, and have multiple players all shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. Much like those Cinderella teams, they have their star player in Boo Buie. Buie is one of the most fun players to watch in the country; a deadly accurate three-point shooter who can seem to take over games at a moment’s notice. At 19.2 PPG, a 44.3% 3-point shooting percentage, and 85.1% free throw percentage, Buie needs to be the focal point of any opposing team’s defense in order to stop Northwestern. But he’s not the only deadly shooter on the team though, as Ty Berry and newcomer and March Madness legend Ryan Langborg, from last year’s Sweet 16 Princeton team, are both capable of picking up the slack if Buie goes cold.
#8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (23-10, 12-8) Big Ten
There’s a lot to like about this Nebraska team, even if none of their numbers jump out at a first glance. Any discussion about head coach Fred Hoiberg’s team must start with the ultra-fun Keisei Tominaga. A product of Japan, Tominaga is one of the streakiest players in the nation, but can be one of the most dangerous players in the game when he is feeling it. He’s a fantastic rhythm shooter and can hit from anywhere on the court. The best part for Cornhusker fans? He tends to show up the most in big games, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pop off in March. Another dimension to this team is the play of Rienk Mast. The 5th year senior from Bradley gives the Cornhuskers a physical presence down low that can help take the load off Tominaga at times, while being able to shoot from the outside in his own right.
#10 Drake Bulldogs (28-6, 17-4) MVC
The Bulldogs are going to be a favorite upset pick for many this bracket season, and it’s easy to see why. They’ve been ultra-competitive all year, have both fantastic baseline statistics and underlying metrics, and are a great 3-point shooting team. Head coach Darian DeVries might have gotten lucky with who his star player is, given that it is his son Tucker DeVries. Tucker has had a phenomenal year, averaging 21.8 PPG, but this isn’t necessarily a one-man show. Take Cal State Northridge transfer Atin Wright for example, a new addition who is scoring nearly 14 PPG, or sophomore Connor Enright, who has been slowly developing into a more valuable piece for the Bulldogs all season. No matter who plays Drake in the tournament, it’s going to be a tight game that likely goes down to the wire.
#8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-13, 8-10) SEC
This Mississippi State team is a hard one to nail down. On one hand, they managed to play competitively most nights against all levels of competition, both in conference and out of conference. They picked up early wins against fellow tournament teams Northwestern and Washington State, and also managed to knock off Tennessee convincingly twice, while staying relatively competitive in a tough SEC. They also have the star power, with point guard Josh Hubbard playing very well as an outside shooter, as well as getting Tolu Smith back from an early season injury. But the rest of the Bulldogs roster is full of question marks. Nobody else averages over 10 points per game, despite most of them being established seniors. Add on a disappointing stretch to end the regular season, as they went 0-4 against Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M and South Carolina; all tournament teams, and one has to wonder how far can this team truly go?
#9 TCU Horned Frogs (21-12, 9-9) Big 12
The Horned Frogs bring an experienced, veteran lineup to the tournament, after a solid season in the Big 12. Despite the weak non-conference schedule, TCU did prove they belonged in the field of 68 after notching key wins over Houston and Baylor during conference play. Their lineup has a ton of experience, thanks to the likes of Emmanuel Miller, Jameer Nelson Jr, and Micah Peavy; all seniors who helped lead TCU in scoring this year. One key about their playing style is their aggressiveness on defense. They finished 15th in the country in steals per game at 9.1, and can be a handful to deal with thanks to their tenacity.
#9 Texas A&M Aggies (20-14, 9-9) SEC
After a rough start to their SEC season, Texas A&M had a huge 5 game winning streak down the stretch to help vault them into the NCAA Tournament, as they started playing some of their best basketball of the year. During that stretch, they knocked off Mississippi State and Kentucky, and almost beat Florida in the SEC Tournament to finish extremely strong. Their team can be broken in two main parts, the scorers and the rebounders. Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford are averaging 18.9 and 16.0 PPG respectively for the Aggies, despite some underwhelming efficiency numbers regarding their shooting percentages. The counter to bad shooting numbers like that? Grabbing a bunch of rebounds, which the Aggies do. They not only are the number 1 team in the nation in total rebounds at 42.7 a game, but are more importantly number 1 in offensive rebounds per game at 17.3. This gives Taylor and Radford plenty of extra opportunities to get their points no matter what. Still, the Aggies have proven to be vulnerable if they can be slowed on the glass somewhat.
#11 New Mexico Lobos (26-9, 10-8) Mountain West
If the Lobos did not win the Mountain West conference tournament, there’s a real chance that we could have missed out on watching head coach Richard Pitino’s team play in March, which would have been a real shame given how fun they are to watch. While most explosive offenses rely on the 3-point shot nowadays, the Lobos have proven that you can still score a ton of points by driving the basket and being aggressive. They are 21st in the country in points per game at 81.7, despite taking less than 20 3-point attempts a game. Instead, they run at a super quick pace and take a ton of shots. They are 4th in the nation in field goals attempted with 65.1, 45.5 of them being 2-point tries. It’s a smart move by Coach Pitino given the strengths of his roster, and it’s helped guys like Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr, and JT Toppin put up big scoring numbers despite the lack of an outside threat. While that means they can be a bit one-dimensional, the Lobos can still be a top-flight offense in the tournament.
#11 Oregon Ducks (23-11, 12-8) PAC-12
The Ducks almost had a season to forget about before going on a late run and snatching an NCAA tournament bid by winning the final PAC-12 Championship of this era of the conference. The main issue has been injuries, as multiple projected starters were lost early in the season that set them back tremendously. While most of their resume is ugly, they are entering the tournament on a 4-game win streak, including wins over fellow tournament foes Colorado and Arizona. They also still have good talent on their roster, in both Jermaine Cousinard and center N’Faly Dante, who could find his way into the upcoming NBA Draft in a few months.
#11 NC State Wolfpack (22-14, 9-11) ACC
Entering the ACC tournament, the Wolfpack were essentially left for dead. They entered as the 10-seed, meaning they would have to win 5 games across 5 days in order to get a bid into the NCAA tournament, which would have included having to beat top flight teams like Duke and North Carolina on no rest. Improbably, that’s exactly what the Wolfpack did. While it did steal a bid away from a bubble team like Pitt or Indiana State, this NC State might be more than just a late season run in the ACC Tournament. For starters, their resume is not honestly that bad. They only have 1 Quad 3 or lower loss, which was at home against Syracuse who have been in a similar position ranking-wise to the Wolfpack all year. It’s also another chance to see this really fun roster take the court once again. 5th year transfer guard DJ Horne caught fire during their ACC tourney run, and is shooting over 41% from 3 on the season. And how could anybody not love watching DJ Burns play? At 6’9, 260 pounds, the big man dropped 19 and 20 points in his final two games against Virginia and UNC respectively. A lot of people might overlook the Wolfpack, but they might surprise people if the matchup is right.
#10 Colorado Buffaloes (24-10, 13-7) PAC-12
The Buffaloes have a strong team despite the overall weakness of the PAC-12 this season. They are extremely strong offensively, largely in part to the play of a few future NBA players; namely KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva. Simpson is an explosive point guard who is one of the best playmakers in the country. Not only is he averaging 19.6 PPG, he's doing so extremely efficiently, as he is shooting 48% from the field, including 45.3% from beyond the arc. He can also distribute the ball at a high level too, at just under 5 assists a game pace. Da Silva, on the other hand, is a long and lanky power forward who plays a versatile game. While he’s best at driving to the rim and attacking the basket, he can shoot a little bit from the outside as well. To stop the Buffaloes, opponents must have to find a way to shut down both players. That is a tall task to say the least.
#10 Colorado State Rams (25-10, 10-8) Mountain West
After dominating the Virginia Cavaliers in their First Four matchup, the Rams look to build upon the momentum into a potential run. Head coach Niko Medved knows what his team’s strengths are, and that is to run a slow-paced but incredibly efficient offense. The Rams are 298th in the country in total field goal attempts, but are 14th in team field goal shooting percentage at 49%. They run a veteran lineup of all seniors, the most dynamic of the bunch being point guard Isaiah Stevens who is averaging 16.2 PPG and 6.9 assists per game.
#12 James Madison Dukes (31-3, 16-3) Sun Belt
The Dukes come into the tournament on fire, bringing in a 13-game win streak while posting one the most impressive records of the field. Their only losses on the season came from Southern Miss, and two losses to Appalachian State, who ended up winning the Sun Belt regular season title but bowed out in the semifinals of the conference tournament. This includes a season-opening victory at the Breslin Center against Michigan State as they began their season 14-0. Their success this season has largely come from their balanced but high-powered offense. The Dukes are top ten in points per game with 84.4, yet only 3 players average double-digit scoring numbers. Junior guard Terrence Edwards is the scoring leader at 17.4 points per game, but he is supported by TJ Bickerstaff, a physical presence down low, as well as deadly outside shooting from Noah Freidel and Julien Wooden who are shooting 38% and 41% from beyond the arc respectively. There are some comparisons to be made to FAU’s Final 4 team from last season, so a deep run into March might not be too far-fetched.
Morehead State Eagles (26-8, 13-4) OVC
The representative of the Ohio Valley Conference this season, the Morehead State Eagles have a veteran lineup that has a good combination of scoring ability while playing some solid defense. The Eagles are an impressive XXXth in the country in opposing points per game, at 62.8. They tend to force the other team to take bad shots, rather than limiting them altogether. Despite allowing 38.5 2-point attempts per game, their opponents only made 43.4% of them, good for XXXth in the country. A similar story is present for 3-pointers, as opposing teams are only hitting a meager 29.6% of their threes against the Eagles. Offensively, they run a high-tempo offense led by Southeastern transfer forward Riley Minix, who is averaging nearly a double-double on the season at 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He is supported with strong guard play from the outside as well, as seniors Jordan Lathon and Kalil Thomas put up impressive scoring numbers, while junior point guard Drew Thelwell is averaging 6.3 assists per game. The potential for an upset is here with this group, as they nearly knocked off Indiana in Assembly Hall earlier this season (69-68).
Longwood Lancers (21-13, 6-10) Big South
Despite finishing 5th in the Big South, the Lancers completed an impressive run through their conference tournament as they knocked out the 1st, 2nd and 4th seeded teams to earn a berth to the Big Dance. Senior point guard Walyn Napper is the key player here, as most of the offense runs through him. He leads Longwood in minutes, assists and points per game. However, a key reason for their success in the Big South tourney was the rest of the team stepping up around him. Forward Michael Christmas is a dangerous shooter who has started to get hot at the right time, while guard Johnathan Massie, a transfer from McNeese State, gives the Lancers another dimension to their scoring. But the biggest key if Longwood is to find any tourney success will be the play of center Szymon Zapala, who finished with 2 huge performances against High Point and UNC Asheville. If the Lancers can stay defensively strong and get balanced scoring from their starters, they could put a scare into a higher ranked foe.
Stetson Hatters (22-12, 11-5) ASUN
For the first time in their history, Stetson is going dancing, and of the lower ranked seeds in this year’s tournament they might have the makings to potentially be the next Cinderella story in March. Why should higher seeds be worried about the Hatters? One player: Jalen Blackmon. The 6 '3 guard is a dangerous scoring threat from all levels of the court, finishing in the Top 15 in points per game amongst all D1 players. He might be at his most dangerous right now as well, finishing with a season-high 43 points in the Hatters’ ASUN Championship game victory over Austin Peay. The supporting cast around Blackmon, while not world-beaters by any stretch, still need to be kept in check as well. Most notably, despite Stetson running a fairly small lineup, 6 '11 PF/C Aubin Gateretse is a good, efficient option down low, which forces teams to not devote their full attention to Blackmon. If he is able to take over a tournament game, this team can be a legitimate threat for a massive upset.
Samford Bulldogs (29-5, 15-3) SOCON
One of the most interesting stories in college basketball, the Bulldogs ran away with the SOCON and will be a trendy pick for an upset thanks to their gaudy record. Samford plays a unique style, colloquially nicknamed “Bucky Ball” after head coach Bucky McMillan, one of few coaches to make the jump from high school straight to D1 after being hired in 2020. The Bulldogs shoot a ton of threes, and are deadly accurate from the outside, boasting an impressive 39.3% 3-point shooting percentage. Despite that, their leading scorer Achor Achor is a dominant player down under the basket, making them a tough team to fully prepare for. The other aspect that makes Samford special? They play a ton of full-court press on defense, almost after every made basket. While this means they do commit a lot of fouls (19 per game), teams will need to be on their game at all times in order to combat it. If they draw against a team that struggles to move the ball up the court quickly, they could very easily find themselves onto the next round.
#16 Wagner Seahawks (16-15, 6-9) NEC
Upsets aren’t just limited to the NCAA Tournament, how about the Wagner Seahawks knocking off the top 3 seeds in the NEC Tournament to clinch an unlikely bid to the Big Dance. Even more shocking was the state of the Wagner roster throughout the season. They’ve lost multiple players to season-ending injuries, getting so low as to have 8 active players for a large chunk of the year. The Seahawks have been holding non-contact practices in order to prevent further injuries, but that didn't stop them from turning in an impressive NEC Tourney run. Though their offense can go cold at times, Wagner doesn’t turn the ball over (only 10 per game), and doesn’t foul. They play in a ton of close games, and could turn up the pressure on a higher seed if they aren’t careful.
#15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits (22-12, 12-4) Summit League
The Jackrabbits are a bit far removed from their truly dominant days when they had players like Baylor Scheierman, but could still provide an upset if their opponent isn’t careful. Most of the attention will fall on Zeke Mayo, their star junior point guard who can do it all. He’s having a phenomenal season, scoring at an 18.8 points per game clip while also dishing out 3.5 assists. But if the Jackrabbits want to pull off an upset, look out for a big game from Luke Appel. The 6th year senior is hitting 43.6% of his threes this season, and has scored 10+ in his past 5 games.
#12 McNeese State Cowboys (30-3, 17-1) Southland
Higher seeds are terrified of drawing McNeese State as their Round of 64 draw, and whoever does will be in for a high-paced offensive street race. Former LSU head coach Will Wade returned from his suspension to coach the Cowboys, and thanks to 6th year transfer from TCU Shahada Wells, they smoked the Southland conference this season. Wells, who averages 17.5 PPG, is the star of the show here, but don’t forget about underrated transfer additions DJ Richards and Javohn Garcia, who have also become key contributors. Another key figure is one returning member of the Cowboys, Christian Shumate, who is averaging nearly a double double at 11.9 PPG and 9.5 rebounds per game.
#14 Colgate Raiders (25-9, 16-2) Patriot League
For the third year in a row, the Colgate Raiders dominated Patriot League play and have a decent chance at pulling off an upset in the Round of 64. Sophomore point guard Braeden Smith (not to be confused with Purdue PG Braden Smith), has quietly put up an impressive season, averaging 12.5 PPG, 5.8 assists per game and 5.5 rebounds per game. He plays in tandem alongside 5th year senior and now 3-time NCAA tournament veteran Keegan Records, as the inside presence for the Raiders. They still shoot the 3-ball quite well (61st in the country), and are apt rebounders; all recipes for a potential upset.
#12 Grand Canyon Antelopes (29-4, 17-3) WAC
It’s a party in Phoenix as the Antelopes are going dancing once again. Coach Bryce Drew has created one of the most fun low-major teams in all of college basketball, and it's led to their 2nd consecutive NCAA Tournament berth in as many years. And this year might be the year they are most primed for an upset. Any conversation about Grand Canyon has to start with Tyon Grant-Foster. It’s been a long and winding road for the 6th year player. After 2 years at a JUCO program, he made the jump to Kansas in 2020-21, where he was an unspectacular role player in limited minutes. He transferred to DePaul the next year, and was off to a great start in his first game before collapsing during halftime. He wasn’t cleared to return to basketball for 16 months before getting the okay from doctors and joining Coach Drew and the Antelopes. So far, it’s been a match made in heaven, as the talented player finally got to show his abilities to the tune of 19.8 PPG, on 45% shooting from the field. It’s a remarkable comeback story that could only get better with a run in the NCAA tournament.
#11 Duquesne Dukes (24-11, 10-8) A-10
In what seems like a movie script, the Duquesne Dukes ended a 47 year NCAA Tournament drought in what has turned out to be head coach Keith Dambrot’s final season. After a much hyped offseason, especially after the additions of the Drame twins from La Salle (more known for their Elite 8 run with Saint Peter’s), the Dukes had a rough go of it from the start of the year. Things only got worse entering A-10 play, as the Dukes started 0-5 in the conference. However, they stayed the course and have finished the year on fire, only dropping 3 games since late January, including a shocking win over NCAA Tournament bound Dayton in the A-10 tournament. In terms of roster talent, opponents need to watch out for Dae Dae Grant. Not only is the 6 '2 guard a multi-faceted scoring threat, he’s near the top of the league in free throw percentage at nearly 94%, something that is not a fluke given he’s averaging 4.6 attempts a game.
#12 UAB Blazers (23-11, 12-6) AAC
Yet another surprise winner of their respective conference tournament, the Blazers knocked off top-seeded USF before shockingly facing 11th seeded Temple in the AAC finals to clinch their bid to the tournament. While certainly not the expected team out of the conference, UAB has some things going for them in terms of potentially making an upset bid. Two stats really stand out for their team profile, their free throw ability and their offensive rebounding. Not only are the Blazers attempting the 12th most free throws in the country, but they are shooting at 74.6% from the charity stripe. They love getting to the line and they can do a lot of damage from there. A great way to draw fouls? Grab a lot of offensive boards, which the Blazers do nearly 13 times a game, good for 28th in the country. The leader on this front is former JUCO player Yaxel Lendeborg. Apart from the fantastic name, Lendeborg is averaging a double double in his first D1 season, at 13.9 PPG and 10.7 rebounds a game. He’s a name to watch for in the Round of 64 if UAB is to pull off an upset.
#13 Vermont Catamounts (28-6, 15-1) America East
It almost feels like a tradition for Vermont to make their way into the NCAA Tournament from the America East each year. The Catamounts and head coach John Becker have won at least a share of the conference’s regular season title every year since 2016-17! This is their 3rd consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, and each time they get there it feels like it might be the year they finally pull off the upset. A big part of each of these conference runs the past few years has been 5th year point guard Aaron Deloney. But this year, he’s supported by some additions from the transfer portal, TJ Long from Fairfield and Shamir Bogues from Tarleton State. Will this finally be the year the Catamounts make their mark?
#13 Yale Bulldogs (22-9, 11-3) Ivy League
The Ivy League loves to produce an upset or two every few years in the NCAA Tournament, and last year was no different with the run to the Sweet 16 by #15 seeded Princeton. Now, it’s Yale’s turn to potentially do some damage. The Bulldogs mainly focus on attacking the interior defense of teams, largely due to the play of their young center Danny Wolf. The Frenchman is averaging 14.3 PPG on 48.6% shooting, but Yale also likes to use their wing players to attack to the rim as well, like 6 '5 forward Matt Knowling. That doesn’t mean they aren’t afraid to shoot the three ball however. Keep an eye on August Mahoney; the 4th year senior is shooting over 46% from 3 and finished strong with two big performances in the Ivy League tournament.
#13 College of Charleston Cougars (27-7, 15-3) CAA
Another familiar face from last year’s tournament, the Cougars are back once again and have upset on their minds. They almost ended San Diego State’s historic championship game run last season before it even began, and have another chance this year as a decently high #13 seed. As usual, Charleston loves to shoot threes, though they are much more volume-heavy this season than efficient with them. Despite chucking the 3rd most three-point attempts in the country at 30.6 a game, they’re only hitting 34.5% of them. Still, all it takes is a hot shooting night from the likes of Reyne Smith, Ben Burnham, or Frankie Policelli to put a real scare into a higher seeded opponent.
#14 Akron Zips (24-10, 13-5) MAC
The Zips are going dancing for the 2nd time under head coach John Groce, and they have a formidable lineup with some potent offensive pieces that could potentially grab an upset if an opponent isn’t careful. Longtime Zips Enrique Freeman and Ali Ali (back after a 1 year stint with Butler) lead Akron in scoring at 18.6 and 15.6 PPG respectively, and form a nice dynamic duo that can be a handful for opposing defenses to handle. Freeman in particular is having one of the least talked about great seasons in the country. He’s shooting an incredible 59.3% from the field, which makes his points per game numbers even more impressive given how efficient he has been. If he is allowed to take over a game, we could see the Zips take down a top seed easily.
#14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies (23-11, 15-5) Horizon League
In an ever-changing college landscape, where players and coaches seem to change schools at the drop of a hat anymore, it’s nice to see loyalty get rewarded with success. And nobody in college basketball embodies loyalty to their school more than Oakland head coach Greg Kampe. Kampe is entering his 40th(!) season coaching the Golden Grizzlies, yet it’s his first time taking the school to the Big Dance since they moved into the Horizon League. While 6th year senior Jack Gohlke is going to draw some headlines for his absurd shooting statistics, as he has only attempted 8 2-point shots this year compared to 327 three-point attempts, the true engine behind Oakland’s success this year has been Trey Townsend. The 4th year forward is coming off a monster game to win the Horizon League against Milwaukee where he dropped 38 points, and is averaging 16.9 PPG on the season. If Oakland is to pull off a big upset, Townsend is going to need another big game like that.
#15 Saint Peter’s Peacocks (19-13, 12-8) MAAC
While it’s unlikely the Peacocks get a rematch against Purdue or Kentucky in this year’s tournament, they find themselves right where they were two seasons ago; against a top-seeded SEC opponent as the 15-seed. Even so, this is a starkly different squad to the Cinderella darlings of 2 years ago. Former head coach Shaheen Holloway left for the Seton Hall job and most of the players moved on to new programs. Still, they have a legacy to uphold and it’s up to a new generation of Peacocks to prove they still have their March magic. The biggest new face is true sophomore Corey Washington, who is coming off a great showing in the MAAC title game against Fairfield after scoring 24 points and 9 rebounds. One of the last remnants of that famed Saint Peter’s team is Latrell Reid, who has become a valuable starting point guard that can both score and distribute the basketball well. Can the Peacocks make another magical run?
#15 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (22-11, 8-8) C-USA
WKU making the NCAA Tournament means that we are likely to get an appearance of their famed mascot, Big Red, which is already a good thing going for the Hilltoppers. But, this is a solid squad that has some interesting names that could have the chance to pull off a major upset if the right conditions are there. Head coach Steve Lutz has been an up and coming name in the coaching world for a few years now, after being an assistant at Purdue and then taking Texas A&M Corpus-Christi to the NCAA Tournament in his first seasons at the school. He now goes 3 for 3 in NCAA berths as a head coach. In terms of players, Dom McHenry is coming off a monster game in the C-USA final against UTEP, where he put up 25 points, 5 rebounds and 4 steals. Another player to keep an eye out for is former Purdue transfer Brandon Newman. A valuable role player for the Boilermakers, he’s blossomed into a legitimate scoring threat for the Hilltoppers.
#15 Long Beach State Beach (21-14, 10-10) Big West
In a tournament full of strange, wild and absurd stories, both good and bad, Long Beach State’s might just take the cake. After a decent start to the season, the Beach hit a late season snag and dropped 5 in a row entering the Big West tournament, putting their chances at an NCAA berth on life support. As a result, the decision was made to let go of head coach Dan Monson at the end of the season. Whether fortunately or unfortunately for the university, their season is not over yet, after they improbably won the Big West tournament. But what’s even more strange might be their resume, especially in their non-conference games. The Beach somehow have wins over 3 “Power 6” conference opponents (at DePaul, at Michigan AND at USC) this year, only lost by 12 at San Diego State, got a win over another tournament team against Montana State, and knocked out both the 1st and 3rd seeds respectively in their conference tournament. This is a team playing with house money, and with a head coach with nothing to lose at this point of the year. Weird things tend to happen in March, and Long Beach State might be the weirdest team in the field.
#16 Grambling State Tigers (20-14, 14-4) SWAC
The Grambling State Tigers are going dancing for the first time in their history, and added their first ever NCAA Tournament win after making a 14 point comeback against Montana State in the First Four. Head coach Donte Jackson’s squad is a veteran roster that can attack from multiple angles offensively. However, they are probably more thought of as a defensive team. The Tigers play a tenacious, aggressive defense as they average 7.4 steals per game, and only give up 69.0 points per game. While they’ve been below average offensively all season, they might have a new x-factor getting hot at the right time. Jimel Cofer, a transfer from Stephen F. Austin, is coming off dropping 19 points against Montana State, and was a dynamic player on the court. He’s going to have to continue his hot stretch of play if the Tigers want to continue their dream season.
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