How bad can it get for Florida State, Norvell?

Despite a lackluster schedule, there is zero disputing that the 2023 Florida State Seminoles were cruising toward a Playoff bid. They were undefeated, had a fringe Heisman contender in Jordan Travis leading the offense, and were reaping the benefits of thoroughly stellar additions through the transfer portal.

It was quite the turnaround for Mike Norvell. A successful coach and at Memphis, he went 3-6 and 5-7 to start his time with the Seminoles. “Hot seat” talk emerged from a fanbase that was growing restless. It cooled as he started 4-0 in 2022, but he was seen as a surefire goner after three straight losses notched them down to 4-3 – a 13-16 start for a guy who did not start his tenure at FSU with consensus support.

However, the program bounced back. They concluded 2022 by winning their last five regular season games – including routing Miami and beating Florida. Then, the 2023 season started with 10 straight wins before a final “tune up” against North Alabama.

One play, with Travis fighting for extra yards, seemingly changed everything.

The star QB was carted off. Back up Tate Rodemaker was inserted into the lineup, a veteran who had beaten out Travis years before. He completed the North Alabama game with ease. Then, he struggled against Florida before becoming injured against the Gators.

With 3rd team QB Brock Glenn at the helm against Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, the Noles all of a sudden gave birth to a nuanced argument about the College Football Playoff – the idea that an undefeated P5 Conference Champion could be denied selection because of a poor future projection rather than resume.

Norvell and the Florida State program were denied its long-awaited return to national relevance, and it has since paid the price.

Playoff? Denied.

Revenge opportunity? Nope, the Noles were demolished by Georgia 63-3 in the Bowl Game

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Elite roster? Gone. Ten players were drafted into the NFL.

Regained momentum? Hell nah, this season is now officially a dumpster fire.

After falling to Duke on Friday night, Florida State is now 1-6 on the season – 1-7 over its last 8 games. The 23-16 defeat at the hands of the Blue Devils is a deep blow to the Noles’ program, which had never lost to their more academically inclined ACC “rival” over its previous 22 contests.

A once proud program looks to be in shambles.

It’s easy to forget exactly how strong the FSU run of dominance was. Under Bobby Bowden, the Seminoles really came on in the 1980s. Upon joining the ACC in 1991, the Seminoles went on a 9-year-run of consecutive Conference championships. During that stretch, they won two consensus national titles and averaged just 1.2 losses per season (11 total). Across all nine seasons, they finished ranked in the top five in the country. By comparison, the longest run Nick Saban had of top five finishes was four seasons.

The turn of the century, however, has been unkind to the program.

Since losing the National Championship Game, missing out on the opportunity to repeat, to Oklahoma in 2000, Florida State would fail to finish as a consensus (they were #10 in the Coaches Poll in 2003, #11 in AP) top 10 team again until 2012, three seasons after Bobby Bowden had been pushed out due to continued decline of the program on and off the field.

Jimbo Fisher would follow up that season with a 2013 National Championship victory with one of the greatest rosters in recent memory. Sustained, Bowden-level success proved unattainable, however, and Fisher bolted FSU after a 7-6 finish in 2017 for a mega contract from Texas A&M.

Willie Taggart would succeed Fisher and oversee the first FSU losing season since Bowden’s first year. He would get fired mid-year the next season.

Then, the Noles turned to Norvell, who had never previously held a head coaching job at a power conference school. His hiring represented somewhat a decline in perception of the program’s prestige. Both Penn State’s James Franklin and Iowa State’s Matt Campbell were considered to be better targets but declined to move on.

For much of his tenure – which included the aforementioned two losing seasons to start – Norvell has been on the hot seat. Now, he finds himself 1-6.

On the schedule ahead, Florida State has two games against Playoff contenders. They play #6 Miami next. That could get ugly. On November 9th, the Noles head to Notre Dame. Multi-score losses are to be expected, and, if FSU is not competitive, that hot seat could get scorching.

Sandwiched between those contests is a game against North Carolina, which is reeling and facing a head coaching challenge of their own – though Mack Brown’s age (73) lends itself to “retirement” more so than “firing.” That game looks like a “must win” for Norvell as does the Charleston Southern game in late November. Should the season play out that way, with him entering the final game against similarly hapless Florida as a 4-6 team, he could be coaching for his life during that game.

However, it’s not that simple.

Life in college football is complicated these days. To fire Norvell, it would cost around $63 million. Big donors might have coughed up those funds more easily a few years ago when they were not also being constantly hit up for NIL funds – which can, more cost-effectively – fund a roster rebuild. If there’s any hope that Norvell can turn it around, which is a difficult case to make after he entrusted this season to DJ Uiagalelei, the power brokers could allow him to remain.

That could leave FSU even more mired in mediocrity. The program has not been recruiting at an elite level, and the Noles currently sit outside the Top 15 with only 12 commitments. Their premier prospect, WR CJ Wiley, is highly likely to end up elsewhere. It’s not considered to be a powerhouse in the world of NIL, and it will struggle to bring in the athletes when that relative weakness is combined with a hot seat coach and mounting losses.

Whether Norvell is jettisoned or not, the program is set for a cash crunch and turmoil. From there, it could really spiral. Nobody knows what its future holds in the conference realignment era, and the job, when it becomes available, will look far less appealing than it did even Norvell was brought on board.

The best days for the Noles are, no doubt behind them. The question whether even “good days” could be ahead, however, is difficult to answer in the affirmative.