Hurricanes and Penguins Make the Boldest Move at the Deadline

By Emmet Mahon

Sometime around 11:00 PM last night, two teams sent extremely different messages to their players and fans. The Carolina Hurricanes pushed all their chips to the middle of the table and declared they were all in on a Stanley Cup championship run. For the Penguins, it was: “Thanks for the memories”. Neither message should be surprising. The former played for the Eastern Conference championship and a berth in the Stanley Cup finals last season. That roster returned mostly intact and just needed a little fine tuning. The latter had signaled their window had closed weeks ago with the inevitable decline demonstrated by play that was slow, undisciplined, indifferent, and sloppy. This trade simply applied the toe tag to close to 20 years of exceptional, championship level play.

Emotion is the fuel that drives the engine sports fandom. As expected, the reaction of the two fan bases was completely opposite. Hurricane fans are excited at the prospect of a deep playoff run and a championship parade. Penguin fans must come to grips with saying goodbye to one of the most likable and popular players to ever skate for the franchise. The trade also removes all doubt that the franchise is officially rebuilding. Their unhappiness is compounded by the perceived lack of a high-end return.

Trades like this one do not happen in a vacuum. Contract status, age, injury, and market conditions all impact the outcome of the transaction. It is natural for fans to immediately evaluate a trade by lavishing praise on it or repudiating it in the strongest terms. Trade winners, if there are any, rarely can be determined at the time of the transaction. Trades that feature veterans for prospects always take seasons for a full vetting to take place.

In the immediate aftermath of the trade, Carolina appears to have come out on top. They acquired the best player involved, Jake Guentzel. Guentzel is a story of always overcoming expectations. A third round selection out of little known Nebraska-Omaha, he was undersized and thin. There were few scouting reports that pegged him as an elite goal scorer and playmaker. (Penguin fans may wish to file that nugget away). Despite the lack of glowing reports, Guentzel made an impression in his NHL debut, potting two goals. It didn’t take Pittsburgh’s coaching staff long to realize pairing him with superstar center Sidney Crosby had the potential to be exceptional. They were not wrong. Guentzel got to play with one of the greatest players of all time and Crosby got the best winger and finisher of his career. The pairing made the two Stanley Cup champions, with Guentzel producing his best work in the playoffs.

Carolina is getting a bona fide scorer and clutch performer. They are also getting him on an expiring contract. There are questions about his fit in the Hurricanes’ system, his injury history, and his compensating from losing Crosby’s playmaking. The Hurricanes have depth all over the ice, except at center. Sebastian Aho is a top rate playmaker and should mesh well with Guentzel, although it is uncertain that he will begin his time in Raleigh playing with him. After Aho, the playmaking ability drops off significantly. That reality prompted the Hurricanes’ other deadline deal, acquiring mercurial center Evgeny Kuznetsov from the Washington Capitals. If Kuznetsov can regain the form that helped the Capitals win their sole Stanley Cup, Carolina will be a serious contender.

Carolina also received minor league defenseman and former first round pick Ty Smith in the deal. Smith has always had a high offensive pedigree. He was the leading scorer for the Penguins’ AHL affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. He had a very promising rookie campaign for the New Jersey Devils, however, has struggled to remain in the NHL. A large factor in that is Smith being a defenseman that doesn’t play defense well. He will be a depth piece for the Hurricanes until their prized prospects Alexander Nikishin and Scott Morrow are available (Nikishin) or ready (Morrow). Smith could also provide additional power play punch should the Hurricanes find that unit faltering. The Penguins also retained 25% of Guentzel’s remaining salary.

Leading up to the deadline, Penguin fans had visions of elite prospects dancing in their heads. However, trades for rentals rarely yield high-end prospects. The players coming into the Penguins’ system are not lumps of coal. They absolutely are not Beech, Lupaschuk, and Sivek. Penguin fans are sour because the first name leaked was veteran forward Michael Bunting. Their disposition went further downward when the final package did not include Morrow or collegiate star Jackson Blake. While those names were speculated upon by hockey media, there is no evidence either player was ever on the table. Instead, the Penguins are receiving solid prospects in C Vasily Ponomarev, LW Ville Koivunen, and RW Cruz Lucius, in addition to a pair of conditional draft picks. Depending on the source, all three were among the Hurricanes top 10 prospects.

The acquisition of Bunting looks like a ghost of former General Manager Jim Rutherford transaction. Bunting and Penguins General Manager Kyle Dubas go back together to Bunting’s day with Sault Saint Marie in Canadian Major Junior. Dubas then acquired him during his tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs. If Penguin fans are looking for a glimmer of hope, it is that Bunting’s best offensive season was achieved playing with Austin Matthews. Perhaps Head Coach Mike Sullivan tries him on Crosby’s wing and sees what happens. The likely scenario is that Bunting is used in the never-ending quest to sure up Pittsburgh’s bottom six, or to move for more assets to be used in the rebuilding process. Bunting is in the first year of a three year contract with an average annual value of $4.5 million.

Ponomarev will be the first prospect to reach Pittsburgh, perhaps in time for Saturday’s game. He has spent the bulk of the 2023-2024 season split between Chicago and Tucson of the AHL because Carolina does not have an AHL affiliate. He has played two games with the Hurricanes, registering one goal and one assist. He has displayed above average playmaking skills and instincts. He plays with determination and a measure of grit. He is a natural center but plays a capable wing. The 21-year-old Muscovite needs to add a little bulk to his 5’10”, 180-pound frame and sharpen up his attention to defense if he is to solidify his potential as a second or third line NHL forward.

The 20-year-old Koivunen has seen lots of ice time against older and bigger players since he was 18 in his native Finland. At 5’11 and 161 pounds, he has been remarkably productive in the notoriously defensive minded Liiga. He has 12 goals and 16 assists in 52 games played. His 26 penalty minutes indicates a willingness to stick his nose in and scrap with the big boys. He plays a highly intelligent game and is adept at putting linemates in the best position to score. He possesses a non-stop motor and plays a 200-foot game. He will need to significantly increase his frame and strength to survive in North America. He is a candidate to join Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at the conclusion of his Liiga season. A season or two in the AHL is in his future. He has the tools and intangibles to be a second line winger but must physically mature before that can be a consideration.

The prospect with the best name and highest ceiling is Minnesota native Cruz Lucius. Lucius is in his second season with the Wisconsin Badgers. He is built similarly to the other prospects at 6’0” and 178 pounds. His 12 goals scored and 19 assists for 31 points in 32 games is a positive metric for success in the professional ranks. He has tallied 65 points in 65 games for Wisconsin. Point per game collegiate scorers have a history of carving out successful careers after leaving school. He likes to shoot and is good at it. However, he is not a shoot only player. He is smart and sees the ice well. He is responsible in his own end and will fall back to support the back check. He displays a true passion for the game. He needs to avoid the injury bug to have a chance at a prolonged and potentially prolific career. If any of the prospects has the skillset and scouting profile to approach Guentzel’s abilities, it is Lucius. He will need to spend at least one more season in Madison followed by a stint in the AHL before he has any chance to be NHL ready. He profiles as a second or third line winger. At worst, he should be a fourth line winger who can be a penalty killing specialist.

The conditional picks involved in these transactions are Carolina’s 2024 first and a fifth, also in 2024, a pick they had acquired from the Montreal Canadians. The condition on the first round pick in contingent on the Hurricanes reaching the Stanley Cup finals, which means it would be no higher than 31st. If they do not reach the Finals, the pick becomes the second rounder they received from the Philadelphia Flyers. Depending on how the remainder of the season plays out, that pick could be in the high teens or low twenties. The fifth round pick remains with Carolina if the Hurricanes do not win the Stanley Cup.

From the Penguins’ perspective, there are questions that need to be answered. Should Dubas have sought to move Guentzel sooner when it became clear that contract extension talks had failed to gain traction? There is a chance that more games the acquiring club had with Guentzel may have provided a greater return. Should Dubas tied the draft pick compensation to a Guentzel extension as opposed to post-season success? The return on rentals is always lesser because of the risk of the new team eventually having nothing to show for the cost in the end. In that vein, should the Penguins have permitted Guentzel’s agents permission for Carolina to engage in preliminary contract discussions with the hopes that the framework of a deal might serve as a sweetener? The exact nature of the sausage making will never fully be known. Complaints have arisen that Dubas settled for quantity over quality. However, subsequent reports have indicated that all the teams interested in Guentzel shied away from including their top prospects. Quality prospects cannot be received if they were never offered. Reviewing other trades that occurred before the deadline indicate that was a league wide mindset.

For the Hurricanes, this is not a risk-free proposition. Guentzel is currently on the Long-Term Injury Reserve (LTIR) list. He should be available by the playoffs. His career has been temporarily derailed at times by injuries. That must be a concern, at least subconsciously. If he gets hurt and the Hurricanes do not win the Stanley Cup, he will be free to join another organization in July. Fortunately for Carolina fans, General Manager Don Waddell has been very shrewd in protecting his draft picks and prospects while building a championship contender. Any Guentzel departure would have minimal negative impact.

Penguins’ fans have one last bitter pill to swallow out of this trade. The collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and NHLPA has a provision in it as it pertains to trading of players on expiring contracts. If the trading team retains any salary, they are precluded from signing that player back in the offseason. That is the case with Guentzel. To fans still stinging about Guentzel leaving and clinging to a reunion next fall, in the words of WWE wrestler Wade Barrett, well, I’ve got some bad news for you. That is not possible. Don’t shoot the messenger.

The best case scenario for all sides is a Stanley Cup Championship for the Hurricanes. Jake Guentzel gets another ring. Raleigh gets a parade. Another banner goes to the rafters of PNC Arena. Dubas gets to keep his draft picks to help him reform the Penguins. Preferably sooner rather than later for all caring parties. Losing a beloved player is never easy. It is a feeling Penguin fans have not felt in years if not decades. But it is the circle of championship life.

Notes: The trade left the Penguins almost $4 million over the cap. They must be compliant by 5:00 P.M. on March 8. Dubas was able to close that gap by sending Defenseman Chad Ruhwedel to the New York Rangers for a fourth round pick in 2027. The remainder could come from an LTIR designation, the leading candidate being F Jansen Harkins who injured his hand in a fight against the Capitals’ F Beck Malenstyn.