Understanding the value of NHL draft capital

When asked about the direction of his team after missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season, Pittsburgh Penguins’ general manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas made one thing abundantly clear: He wanted to stockpile draft capital.

There is, perhaps, no major professional sports league in which draft capital holds the value it does in the National Hockey League. For one, unlike in Major League Baseball, the National Football League, and the National Basketball Association, it is overwhelmingly common for players to be drafted right out of juniors, and several are playing in the NHL by the time they’re 20 years old. This puts a lot of pressure on GMs of rebuilding teams - or teams on the cusp of the playoffs - to get their first-round pick right.

But - more importantly - the lower, hard-cap nature of the league amplifies the general value of draft capital. Teams looking to compete must be wise about asset management. Otherwise, they become susceptible to botching their competitive window.

So what is the value of NHL draft capital? Why is it such a coveted asset?

What is a draft pick worth?

This begins with understanding the dollars-equivalent value of NHL draft picks. One of the best references for this is the chart for NHL offer sheet compensation:

Obviously, this isn’t an exact science - as top-10 draft picks hold more value than later first-round picks - but it helps gauge the value comparison of an NHL player versus a pick when building trade proposals.

In other words, in terms of asset management, an NHL player making above $4.58 million is, in a general sense, worth at least one first-round pick. The fact that a first-round pick is worth nearly $5 million right out of the gate suggests how highly draft capital is valued at the NHL level.

Why is draft capital such a coveted commodity?

It was already discussed a bit earlier, but since the NHL’s hard-cap system is so strict - and so low, comparatively - it makes it extremely difficult for teams to stay competitive for long stretches of time.

This is especially true for aging teams nearing the end of their competitive windows. Teams like the Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington Capitals, and St. Louis Blues - just to name a few - went “all-in” for years at the expense of bleeding their draft and prospect pools dry. All of these teams are still capable of competing for playoff spots, even with aging cores. But it is difficult to retool on-the-fly and make the roster younger without the necessary assets at a team’s disposal.

And that’s exactly why stockpiling draft capital is so important.

Let’s take the Penguins, for instance: This summer alone, the Penguins have - in total - acquired two 2025 third-round picks, a 2026 sixth, and a 2026 second while only moving out a 2025 second and a 2026 fifth. Granted, they had to take on some salary to do it, but several additions have been reclamation projects that could go either way for the Penguins. And they’ve gotten a bit younger in the process.

So now, they have draft capital to spare:

© Puckpedia

For an aging team that is trying to rebuild on-the-fly and compete as soon as possible? This is a pretty ideal situation to be in, and there may be more moves for assets on the way (such as replenishing that 2025 second-round pick). Having excess draft capital gives a team options and allows management to be reactive. It affords the flexibility to have different paths, see how the season plays out, and react accordingly without leaving the cupboard barren.

And it appears that is what GMs like Dubas are trying to do.

What is the outlook for teams with high-volume draft capital?

This is a compound, complicated question, namely because so much draft capital moves in and out of organizations on a yearly basis. Many picks that a team actually has nowadays aren’t originally their own.

From a hypothetical standpoint, a lot of draft capital can only be a good thing.

For teams like the Penguins and Capitals, it gives them the option to keep most of their picks and use them for drafting, but it also makes some of their mid-round picks expendable when it comes to acquiring young, NHL-ready talent. It gives them a chance to compete with younger talent in the near-term and, simultaneously, restock their prospect pool to contend in the future as well.

For rebuilding teams like the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens - the latter of which has a ton of 2025 draft capital - it gives them the opportunity to draft and develop legitimate talent in their systems and also to take on some bigger, older, unwanted contracts from contending teams so they can acquire more capital, prospects, and young talent.

From an evidential standpoint, there have been some recently successful “soft rebuilds,” and there are some in the works.

The Vancouver Canucks are an example of a team that was mired in mediocrity for several years but made some business-savvy, low-cost/high-upside trades and signings - in addition to exercising a bit of patience with their core - to soar to a first-place finish in the Pacific Division last season. They lost in the Conference Semifinals last season but appear poised to improve in the coming seasons.

The Capitals made the playoffs last season despite their aging core and poor underlying numbers. But their excess draft capital has allowed them the flexibility to add players such as Jakob Chychrun and Andrew Mangiapane this summer, bolstering their NHL roster for another run but keeping valuable draft picks intact.

The Blues took a hybrid approach, saving draft capital for some moves this season to make a potential run. They successfully offer-sheeted Edmonton’s Philip Broberg (D) and Dylan Holloway (F), sacrificing much of their 2025 draft capital but significantly improving their NHL roster for 2024-25. They also have some older, sellable assets such as Brandon Saad, who probably won’t be part of their plan going forward and who can land them more draft capital to replace some of what was lost.

All in all, the more draft capital, the better. Dubas seems to be following a similar blueprint to the above teams, and it remains to be seen how that will play out in 2024-25.

But, regardless, the short- and long-term outlook for the Penguins looks much better than it did even a year ago - and much of that can be credited to Dubas stockpiling that valuable draft capital.

Kelsey Surmacz

The Hockey News

Follow me on X: @kelsey_surmacz4