Predicting the 2024 NBA Cup

With the field now set for tonight, let us predict how the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup Tournament is going to play out. The schedule and bracket can be found here. I am going to go into detail about the quarterfinal matchups, pick winners for the semifinals and championship. However, I will not be doing head-to-head analysis on theoretical matchups but will revisit those as the tournament moves along.

Tonight’s Slate:

Milwaukee Bucks (#1) vs. Orlando Magic (#4):

Orlando lost Franz Wagner to a torn oblique and will not see the return of Paolo Banchero, who is also recovering from the same injury, before the tournament concludes. While the Magic are coming off a win over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday, their first game since losing Wagner, I do not think they can keep up with Milwaukee. The Bucks are starting to get healthy and now have Khris Middleton back in the rotation.

This really comes down to Orlando having no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo and do not have the firepower to keep up with Milwaukee. Good offense tends to beat good defense, so Damian Lillard will still maintain a slight edge while defended by Jalen Suggs.

The Magic will need a career night from Suggs and at least two other rotation players will need to step up with him. The likely candidates are Moritz Wagner and Cole Anthony to me as I believe Goga Bitadze and Wendell Carter Jr. will be limited by Brook Lopez. Wagner is physical and versatile enough to log 25+ minutes and may remain on the court in crunch time. Anthony can attack the Buck’s weakness – perimeter defense – and is a better outside shooter than Anthony Black or Jett Howard.

The nature of a one-game series makes things more interesting but will not change the outcome.

Bucks over Magic

Oklahoma City Thunder (#1) vs. Dallas Mavericks (#4):

When you look at all the quarterfinal matchups, this is top 2 for me. Both teams had two days of rest so we should see each team’s best. Oklahoma City has won 10 of their last 13 contests. Dallas has won 12 of their last 13 games which includes a victory in their only meeting against the Thunder back in mid-November, and that was without Luka Doncic and on the road.

I am giving the edge to the Mavericks here as the stars should align for Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson to all be on the court together for the fourth straight time; Dallas is currently 10-6 when all three play. They may also get back key reserves in Naji Marshall and Maxi Kleber.

On the other hand, Oklahoma City will be without Chet Holmgren, who likely will not return until sometime in January. Holmgren was instrumental in helping the Thunder limit opposing centers. Without him, major roll targets like Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford should have positive days. Throw in P.J. Washington, who was a huge boost for the Mavericks in their last meeting, and I think Dallas emerges as the victor.

Mavericks over Thunder

Wednesday Night:

New York Knicks (#2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (#3)

This one is tricky as one would think New York should be an easy favorite here by just looking at the current standings. But Atlanta beat the Knicks in their only meeting this season back in early November and they will have Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter for this one.

I do not think the Hawks will get another career-high 33 points from Zaccharie Risacher on Wednesday, but their wing depth will test New York. Not to mention the continued improvement of Dyson Daniels as a starter in the backcourt along with Trae Young. Atlanta will not be able to hurt the Knicks down low, an area they are not great at defending, but will have their full complement of players available with a stable starting lineup and known rotations.

New York will again need another MVP-like output from Karl-Anthony Towns, who recently rested to help manage tendinitis in his right knee. For the Knicks, this will come down to whether their guards and wings are better than the Hawks. On paper, that is the case. Jalen Brunson is the best, most consistent guard between the two teams and he should play 40+ minutes in this one. How head coach Tom Thibodeau manages minutes in their matchup against the Toronto Raptors on Monday night (as of this writing) will go a long way in determining how much juice will be in the tank come Wednesday.

Hawks over Knicks

Houston Rockets (#2) vs. Golden State Warriors (#3)

This is the other top 2 matchup in the quarterfinals for me. Golden State has already beat Houston twice this year. The first went to overtime and the second saw the Rockets make an early fourth quarter run that made things interesting down the stretch. Steph Curry did not play in either and I think that will make a big difference here.

Will the Warriors play 12 guys if everyone is available? Spreading out the minutes has paid early dividends for Golden State and has aided in the development of Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski. The former dropped a career-high 33 points against Houston last week with the ladder tying a career-high with 11 rebounds. The Rockets did not seem to have an answer to that. I also think the Warriors are more likely to play as a team and have championship experience, and again, Curry matters here.

Houston may hold a slight edge in terms of athleticism, but they are not going to advance if their guards do not play better in this matchup. Fred VanVleet is a combined 7-28 (25%) on field goals and 4-18 (22.2%) on three-pointers in their two contests against Golden State this season. Jalen Green has been worse. Green is 6-29 (20.7%) on the field and 1-9 (11.1%) on triples against the Warriors. While Alperen Sengun has been consistent, you never quite know what kind of offensive night you will get from Jabari Smith Jr. and Dillon Brooks. There is too much offensive variability there for me.

Warriors over Rockets

Semifinals:

Bucks over Hawks

Mavericks over Warriors

Championship:

Mavericks over Bucks